More Lower 48 LNG Exports

The idea of lower 48 LNG exports is becoming a reality. A few months back Cheniere start the trend. I made this prediction last November:

What's next? - I assume the Cheniere business model is a good one and similar import terminals with the right ingredients will follow suit.  See page 38 of the Cheniere presentation (LINK) for plant volumes. 

This week the Department of Energy authorized Sempra to export LNG from the Cameron Parish Site (LINK), and quote:

HOUSTON -(MarketWatch)- The U.S. Department of Energy said Friday it has authorized Cameron LNG to export liquefied natural gas, opening the door wider for U.S. natural gas companies to send their bounty overseas.
The export permit is only the third awarded in the U.S. It allows Cameron, a wholly-owned subsidiary of California-based natural gas distributor and marketer Sempra Energy, to ship up to 1.7 billion cubic feet a day of LNG from its in Cameron Parish, La., facility to countries possessing free-trade agreements with the U.S. 

Here's a list of existing North American LNG import terminals with my analysis of proximity to shale gas (including the pipeline infrastructure to move the shale gas) Note, this table does not include the 2.8 BCFD proposed Gulf Coast LNG Terminal, Brownsville Texas:

The plan to convert LNG import terminals into an export terminals make sense for terminals located near shale gas fields and adequate pipelines. By this analysis there's good potential for four more new export terminals.  Two of those potential sites are controlled in part by Alaskan North Slope producers. I say this to illustrate the business decision before the producers: Build liquefaction  units at existing lower 48 import facilities -or- build a North Slope gas treatment plant, a $20 billion pipeline to Valdez, and a liquefaction at Valdez.  Obviously the Alaska LNG option is pointless unless North Slope gas is priced at a deep discount to Henry Hub.  How deep?  To defer the cost of $20 billion gas line to Valdez North Slope gas needs to sale for $1.50/MMBTU less than Henry Hub (based on a discount cash flow over 20 years at 5%).  

Now this isn't all bad news.  In the best case scenario the four import terminal near shale gas listed above are all converted to LNG export pushing the Henry Hub price of gas up into the $5 or $6/MMBTU range.  At that point in time Alaskan gas will not need to compete with the low capital cost of import facility conversion and the deep discount will not be a factor.  In the mean time it's important to remember the North Slope producers can sell LNG from lower 48 import terminals for less cost compared to building an pipeline to Valdez. 

Prediction - expect more announcements of lower 48 LNG import facility conversion to export.

For more information on the effects of LNG export see the  EIA report (LINK), and

Brookings Institution study on exporting LNG from the United States (LINK)

More Gulf Coast LNG Sold

Cheniere Energy Partners has signed another deal to export LNG from Sabine Pass - this time to the Indian utility company Gail, (LINK) and quote:

State-owned gas utility GAIL India today said it has signed an agreement to buy 3.5 million tonnes a year of LNG for 20 years from a US firm to meet India's growing energy needs.
"GAIL has signed a Sales and Purchase Agreement (SPA) for supply of LNG over 20 years with Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC, a subsidiary of Cheniere Energy Partners, LP, USA for supply of 3.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG," the company said in a press statement here.  

Supplies may start as early as 2016."Under the SPA, GAIL will pay Sabine Liquefaction as per contractual provisions on a Henry Hub (US gas benchmark) basis after transfer of custody on FOB. LNG will be loaded onto GAIL's vessels," it said.The SPA has a term of 20 years commencing upon the date of first commercial delivery, and an extension option of up to 10 years.

It's interesting to note that the price of LNG under this agreement is indexed to Henry Hub vs. WTI or Brent crude.  That indicates that the buyer believes in long term low Henry Hub prices and sought to de-link their gas price from crude.  For Cheniere, indexing to Henry hub allows them to operate the plant and collect a predictable margin regardless of variations in the crude market.

Of course this is all very interesting for Alaskans.  First - Exporting lower 48 shale gas as LNG is a good thing because it builds support and stabilizes demand for L48 gas.  Second - it shows that long term LNG deals are possible, but the terms of the agreements have to be smart and fair to both parties. Third - I'm interested to see announcements of LNG export deals vs. announcements of new combined cycle power plants.  The export market may beat domestic power producers to the punch.